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OCTOBER 23,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

FLORIDA – I am trying each day to find news stories worth reporting.  The press is fixated on the midterms, clearly hoping they will be the first stage of the dumping of Trump.  And yet, there is very real hard evidence they can come up with to prove that this is true, or will be true.  Indeed, today seemed to be "Florida Day" in the pre-election news cycle.   News that the African-American mayor of Tallahassee, Andrew Gillum, is taking a solid lead in the gubernatorial race, at least in two polls, produced fits of Obamamania in some journalists.  Physicians had to be called.  Sedatives were given.  Gillum is an incompetent mayor of a crime-ridden city, and he is under investigation for corruption, but he is that darling of darlings, a black progressive.  Not a halfway guy like Barack, but the full package.   Financed heavily by George Soros.  Anti-cop.   Wants to impeach Trump.  If he takes Florida, the sky's the limit.  Will it be Vice President Gillum in two years.  It's clear many are hoping so, if he can stay out of jail.  But watch the reaction to him on election night if he wins.  It's so rare to see journalists in love.

THE "MIGRANT" CARAVAN – Clearly, this is building as the major "other" story as we approach the election.  As usual, very few media outlets want to ask any serious questions about who's organizing and financing this sudden mass march northward from Central America.  No one seems to be starving, or dressed in rags, or wanting for any necessities.  Very well organized, I have to admit.  I didn't know leftists could be this capable.  Still, I wait for some new Moses to arrive at the head of the line, and bring with him ten more commandments, this batch emailed, and containing at least two commandments dealing with pre-existing conditions and legalization of immigrants.  I want to see Moses testify before Congress.  I'm sure our own ambitious senator from New York, Kirsten Gillibrand, will claim she knew him in high school.

ANOTHER OUTSTANDING DEMOCRAT – FROM PJ MEDIA:   Minnesota state Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-60B) currently leads the race to fill the federal House seat being vacated by Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN). Immediately after being elected to her current seat in 2016, Omar faced allegations -- soon backed by a remarkable amount of evidence -- that she had married her own brother in 2009, and was still legally his wife. They officially divorced in December 2017.  The motivation for the marriage remains unclear. However, the totality of the evidence points to possible immigration fraud and student loan fraud.  I'm sure this is just a cultural misunderstanding, and no doubt our fault.  Why can't we learn to appreciate other traditions?

October 23,  2018    Permalink

MORE ON THE "BLUE WAVE" – AT 2:33 P.M. ET:  The Dems are hoping for a vast blue wave two weeks from today, sweeping away the evil Trump and the deplorables who support him.  But, wait a gosh-darned minute, as George Gobel used to say.  We have a second polling organization that has been analyzing early voting, at least in blue California and the wave seems to be a drip.  From the Sacramento Bee:   

California Democrats will need to turn the current early-voting tides if they want to see a blue wave in the upcoming Nov. 6 elections.

Paul Mitchell, a political consultant and vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data, said initial ballot returns could spell trouble for Democrats hoping for a wave that goes their direction. His company’s absentee vote tracker shows the turnout thus far is typical of the turnout of the past, with older, whiter, and more Republican voters submitting their ballots.

“If there is a Democratic wave, we’re going to have to see a departure from that pattern here in the tracker,” Mitchell said.

With two weeks left until Election Day, Mitchell noted it is still too early in the game to draw conclusions.

“We should read it at the beginning with a little bit of trepidation,” he added.

One of the key races to watch will be in Congressional District 39, where Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are competing. So far, turnout among Latino and Asian voters — two groups that could sway the outcome of the election — is underwhelming.

Mitchell said he is also keeping his eye on young voters and people listed with no party preference. While ballots are just beginning to be returned, the share of voters aged 18 to 34 is similar to that of those who had voted at this point in the past.. “If Democrats are going to have a wave, it’s dependent on young people getting into the 30-40 percent range,” he said.

COMMENT:  Again, we report these things as part of the great game of politics.  By the time the election is over, all the models might break down.  But, thus far, there does not seem to be the wave Nancy Pelosi wishes for every night. 

October 23, 2018       Permalink

TWO WEEKS TO GO – AT 1:15 P.M. ET:  And I'm impressed by how close so many races are, and by how high the initial turnout of early voters is.  I don't think anything is in the bag for anyone, but the basic scenario of the GOP holding the Senate and the Dems taking the House seems reasonable, if nothing more. 

In Rasmussen today, the president rises to 48%, from the 47% he's been stuck at the last three days.  Statistically, that means nothing.

In the Senate, RealClearPolitics is predicting 50 safe GOP seats, 44 safe Dem seats, 6 toss-ups.

In the House, RCP is predicting 205 safe Dem seats, 200 safe GOP seats, 30 toss-ups.

The House is particularly intriguing.  Even if the Dems take it, their majority might be so small as to be almost moot.  Yes, they'd have committee chairmanships, with the power to investigate, but there are still enough moderate Dems to make passing a radical agenda very iffy.  And it's unlikely that all Dems would line up behind impeachment of the president or Justice Kavanaugh.

But, in the end, no one knows anything.  Turnout, turnout, turnout.

October 23,  2018     Permalink

OCTOBER 22,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

READ WITH CAUTION – FROM THE HILL:   Republican-affiliated voters are outpacing Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in several states with key elections this fall, according to NBC News.  The news outlet, citing data provided by TargetSmart, reports that Republican-affiliated early voters are exceeding Democratic-affiliated early voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas.   The only state where Democratic-affiliated voters are outperforming Republicans is in Nevada, according to the eight races for which TargetSmart provided data to the outlet.  Okay, sounds good, but I wouldn't take this to the bank.  Most of the votes will be cast on election day.

I LOVE IT, I LOVE IT – FROM THE HILL:   White House chief of staff John Kelly and former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski got into a physical altercation earlier this year outside the Oval Office and had to be separated by the Secret Service, The New York Times reported Monday.   The Times, citing a half-dozen people familiar with the altercation, reported that Kelly grabbed Lewandowski "by the collar and tried to have him ejected from the West Wing."  The altercation occurred on Feb. 21 and was preceded by an argument between the two men, according to the newspaper.  The two men were inside the Oval Office that day with Trump, and Kelly reportedly complained to the president that Lewandowski was making money off Trump through a contract with a super PAC supporting Trump's reelection, according to the Times.   Kelly was also angry because Lewandowski had criticized him on television for his handling of security clearances for Rob Porter, the newspaper reported. Porter is a former top aide to President Trump who resigned amid abuse accusations from his two ex-wives.  Ah, passion and intrigue in the White House.  Soon to be a minor motion picture.

GREAT MOMENTS IN EDUCATION – FROM PJ MEDIA:   The creators of the ACT test announced on Wednesday that scores for the class of 2018 are the worst reported in decades. Math scores, in fact, are in freefall among ACT-tested U.S. high school graduates, falling to their lowest mark in 14 years, according to The Condition of College and Career Readiness 2018, the ACT’s annual report.  The report includes ACT test results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.  "The percentage of ACT-tested graduates who met or surpassed the ACT College Readiness Benchmark in math—suggesting they are ready to succeed in a first-year college algebra class—fell to its lowest level since 2004," the report declared, with only 40 percent of 2018 graduates meeting the benchmark, "down from a high of 46% in 2012."  The average score on the ACT math test dropped to its lowest level in 20 years — 20.5 on a scale of 1 to 36. American students scored 21.1 in 2012 and 20.7 last year.  If we do not cure the mediocrity and cronyism in our school systems, we can easily turn into a second-rate nation.

October 22, 2018       Permalink

NOBLE MIGRANTS? – AT 11:30 P.M. ET:   You'd think, from some left-wing press reports, that the crowd of "migrants" coming north to our southern border is something on the moral order of the Biblical exodus.  It ain't.  From DC Whispers: 

While the Establishment Media continues to portray the 4000-7000 strong human caravan marching north as merely a group of people seeking asylum and/or jobs, the actual actions within this group paint a very different and troubling reality. These people are acting more and more like an invading force and not like mere refugees. 

Via Newsweek: 

DONALD TRUMP IS THE ‘ANTICHRIST’ AND IS ‘GOING TO HELL,’ IMMIGRANT FROM CARAVAN SAYS

Central American migrant has blasted President Donald Trump in angry comments to CNN’s Bill Weir at the border between Mexico and Guatemala.

“Donald Trump is the antichrist,” the unidentified man can be seen saying in Spanish during a CNN report aired this weekend on the immigrant caravan that has traveled to the Mexican border from Honduras. “If he doesn’t repent, he’s going to hell,” the man adds.

Thousands of Central American migrants have joined a caravan that originally formed more than a week ago in Honduras. Trump has repeatedly threatened Central American leaders with complete aid cuts if the group’s progress is not stopped. On Thursday, the president also called on Mexican authorities to stop the caravan’s progress once it reached Mexico’s southern border.

COMMENT:  We still have no serious reporting on who is financing and directing this venture.  But the notion that the timing, coinciding with our great national election in two weeks, is mere coincidence, is nuts.  I'd like to see some investigative reporting, but that might frustrate the media's attempts to sanitize the great march.  All they need is a Moses.  Charlton Heston, wherever you are, call your agent.

October 22, 2018       Permalink

BLUE WAVE?  WELL... – AT 2:18 P.M. ET:   It still may happen, but the Dems are plainly worried that the result on election night will not be as advertised.  Allowing Republicans to vote was clearly a big mistake.  From Fox: 

Top Democrats are working to manage expectations about a "blue wave" sweeping the party into power on Capitol Hill, urging caution about those predictions amid fresh signs that the midterms could be much closer than anticipated.

With just over two weeks to go before the critical elections, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said Monday that he doesn’t use the term “blue wave” to talk about a possible victory for his party. Even though House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi -- who has her eyes on the speaker's gavel -- said just days earlier they could be looking at a Democratic "tsunami," Perez predicted a tight race for control of Congress.

“We always knew that this election was going to be close — I don’t use the term ‘blue wave,’ I always talk about the need for the blocking and tackling,” Perez told CNN. “I always talk about the need for organizing, to make sure you’re leading with your values, and that’s how we’ve been winning throughout this year and throughout 2017.”

What values are those?  Harassing public officials in restaurants?

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders cast even more doubt on the "wave" narrative.

“A lot of people talk about this 'blue wave' and stuff,” Sanders told The Hill. “I don’t believe it.”
Sanders, an independent who ran for president in 2016 as a Democrat, added: “I happen to think that on election night we’ll find a very, very close situation and maybe a handful of votes determining whether Democrats gain control of the House.”

The cautious comments come as the shifting midterm landscape reflects a Republican advantage in the Senate and the likelihood of a tough fight for control of the House -- which could be determined by just a handful of races, even as Democrats are still seen as having the edge.

Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said Monday on Fox News’s “America’s Newsroom” that the GOP should hold the Senate, and has a shot at the House.

“There’s a possibility to keep the majority in the House,” she said. “… But it’s going to depend on our voters turning out.”

COMMENT:  Now, of course, a lot of this could be tactical talk, designed to avoid overconfidence and convince voters to get to the polls.  At this point it's all about turnout, or the "ground game" as some in politics call it.  Traditionally, the Democratic ground game has been better, based on years of experience in dragging voters to the polls in large cities.  But Republicans have been working on theirs.  I hope they're past the horse 'n buggy stage.

October 22,  2018     Permalink

PRESIDENT HOLDS – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:  The president is holding at 47% in Rasmussen.  He was as high as 51% early last week, but settled at 47% at the end of the week.  It's hard to know whether this is a real drop, or a statistical correction.  Other polls have the president rising, with NBC also showing 47%.  Most polls show him lower, but rising slowly.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove. 

The latest figures include 34% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 43% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9.

COMMENT:  The president will be campaigning until election day.  The major anticipated event in these next two weeks is the possible arrival of that "migrant march" at our southern border.  The Dems will try to frame Mr. Trump's response as "cruel," in an attempt to drive up the "Hispanic vote," but I believe the overwhelming majority of Americans, and, yes, possibly including large numbers of Hispanics, will approve of a strong response.

October 22,  2018     Permalink